Food City Dirt Race odds: NASCAR moves to a dirt track this week in Bristol (2024)

Get excited (or maybe not? — see the answers below): NASCAR has its annual dirt track this weekend at the Bristol Motor Speedway (FOX, Sunday, 7 p.m. ET). We asked our resident experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, to help guide us through the nuances of this unique experience.

1. We get our annual taste of a dirt track this week. Is this a good or bad thing?

Jeff: You know how the NFL does that Nickelodeon broadcast where they have fake slime in the end zone when a touchdown is scored? Now imagine if the NFL decided to put actual slime all over the field during one of its marquee matchups on Sunday Night Football. Some of the best athletes on the planet would look like a bunch of clowns, slipping and sliding and fumbling all over the place in a blooper reel of a game. It would probably be entertaining, but not exactly a true test of football skill. Whether you think that would be a good or bad thing is probably the same answer you’d give about the Bristol dirt race.

Jordan:Variety is a good thing and having one dirt track on the schedule gives NASCAR, arguably, the most diverse schedule across motorsports. Now, a discussion can be had whether Bristol is the appropriate venue for such a race, and a case could be made that this race should be elsewhere. But focusing on the present, the hope is that the track and NASCAR have learned from the missteps of a year ago and the racing is better off for it.

2. Do we have any indication how a Next Gen car will race on dirt yet? Or do you at least have any hunches?

Jeff: No clue, and that brings up an important point – bettors beware this weekend. There have been a few races this year with the Next Gen car where we weren’t quite sure what to tell you about placing your wagers. Of all the races, this is likely the most extreme of those situations. If you do bet, might as well just put a few bucks on some long shots; otherwise, I don’t see how you could get a very reliable guess.

Jordan: Outside of a very short clip NASCAR showed on its social media channels, we have not seen this car turn a full lap on a dirt track. This makes it a challenging race to handicap, one without any clear favorites. Even looking back to last year’s results won’t do much good, as the track is expected to race differently this weekend due to how the track has been prepped.

3. Who do we like this weekend to win? Should we be looking at past dirt performance?

Jeff: Dear Reader, I honestly could not pick a name and look you in the eye in good faith. Any hint of who might be good in the inaugural Bristol dirt race last year was thrown out the window when Joey Logano, who had next to zero dirt experience in his life, won at Bristol for his only victory of the season. Everyone thought a driver with a dirt background (Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell) would win it; instead, three of the top four finishers in last year’s race had about as much dirt racing experience as you and I do. That’s a long way to say I don’t know, but it’s the truth.

Jordan: Jeff is spot on regarding the difficulty in forecasting a favorite. But if you feel compelled to place a wager the best bets would be on either Kyle Larson or Christopher Bell. Each has shown an ability to quickly adapt to various dirt tracks around the country and both were fast at Bristol last year until Bell spunout into the path of Larson, severely damaging both cars.

4. Who are some long shots to take a look at?

Jeff: Austin Dillon wasn’t a factor in last year’s dirt race, which really surprised me. He was my pick heading into that weekend based on his dirt late model experience. It’s one thing to have raced sprint cars and midgets like Larson and Bell, but those are high-powered open-wheel cars that don’t really translate as well to heavy, lumbering stock cars on dirt. The closest thing, in theory, would be dirt late models. Dillon won the inaugural Eldora Speedway Truck Series race in 2013 (ahead of Larson), so it’s clear he’s capable of doing well on dirt. At 40-to-1 odds, he’s the best of the long shot picks.

Jordan: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at +2000 presents solid value. He has extensive experience on dirt and that helped him in this race a year ago where he finished a close runner up to Logano — his only top five finish on the season.

5. Outside of this week being a dirt race, are the books overrating Kyle Larson (he’s +450 this weekend)? He’s the favorite again and he isn’t winning very often.

Jeff: Larson is the best dirt racer in the world and one of the best ever, so there’s no way he wouldn’t be the favorite for this race. But Larson got caught up in a pair of crashes at last year’s Bristol dirt race and finished 29th – one of only four times when he finished outside the top 20 in his entire championship season – which underscores my previous point of why this wacky event shouldn’t get too much of your gambling money.

Jordan:Based on his dirt proficiency, that he’s the defending series champ and a household name, it makes sense why the books would have Larson as the favorite. As for his lack of success this season — outside of his win at Fontana — don’t give that too much thought. He’s had speed, just not the execution but eventually he and his team will start rolling great finishes.

QUICK HITS FOR THE NASCAR NOOBS!

1. Are there more crashes on dirt?

Jeff: Last year there were six multi-car crashes in the Bristol dirt race, including one wreck that had 10 cars in it. Much depends on the track preparation (once the dirt dries out, it might turn into a one-lane, pavement-style race), but there’s certainly the potential for chaos.

Jordan: Largely depends on the track and how it’s prepped. If it’s anything like last year, expect plenty of accidents with drivers struggling to remain in control.

2. When we say something is converted from concrete, does that mean they tore up the track or they just dropped a bunch of dirt over it?

Jeff: They piled the dirt right on top of that beautiful Bristol Motor Speedway concrete, akin to burying alive one of the best ovals in the world. It makes me sad just thinking about it. What a travesty.

Jordan: Jeff, how do you really feel about Bristol being transformed into a dirt track? It’s hard to understand what your true feelings are.

3. Why is there no Xfinity race this weekend?

Jeff: Cost savings. The Trucks have already raced on dirt since 2013, so they didn’t need to change anything. Cup teams had to eat the expense, but there’s no point in making the cash-strapped Xfinity Series teams do the same thing.

Jordan: Racing on dirt is an expensive venture, a cost many Xfinity teams simply cannot afford.

4. Can we derive any performance hints/long shots from the Truck series on dirt? Or are these two completely different worlds?

Jeff: That’s certainly one thing to consider – look at the Cup drivers who will be running the Truck race to get some more seat time on Saturday. Those include Logano, Dillon, Chase Elliott and Harrison Burton. Additional experience never hurts.

Jordan: Going with someone who’s running the Truck race makes sense. Just look at last year where Martin Truex Jr., not someone with much experience on dirt, won the Truck Series race then followed by leading the most laps in the Cup race. One of the above four drivers taking what they learned in the Truck race and applying it to Sunday’s Cup race is not a reach by any means.

Reading List

• Bianchi: In the quest to restore Richmond to its ‘action track’ status, the solution is already out there
• The Top 5: Thoughts on NASCAR at Martinsville, F1 in Australia and IndyCar in Long Beach
• 12 Questions with William Byron (2022 edition)
• Motorsports mailbag: Should NASCAR race on Easter Sunday, what’s next for Ty Gibbs?

(Top photo: Chris Graythen/Getty Images)