Date/Time: Sunday May 19th, 2024. 8:00PM (EST)
Where: North Wilkesboro Speedway
TV: FS1
For the 2nd straight year, NASCAR’s best will return to historic North Wilkesboro Speedway for the running of the 41st All-Star Race. Last year, Kyle Larson earned a dominating victory in the All-Star Race which was headlined by NASCAR’s return to North Wilkesboro after 27 years of inactivity. While Larson dominated the event to win his 3rd All-Star Race in the last 5 years, the return to North Wilkesboro appeared successful and NASCAR will return this weekend for an encore performance with even more twists in an attempt to ramp up the competition and excitement.
While the All-Star is a must-watch event, I would remind all of our subscribers that we will not release official handicapping picks this week. I have always left the exhibition races off our official betting cards because these events are often designed for excitement which is not ideal for handicapping. The All-Star Race specifically has yielded numerous different formats in recent years and all have been designed to create exciting racing in effort to avoid single drivers dominating like Kyle Larson did just a year ago. Once again, this year’s race will have a different twist in the format which will likely create some surprises. Needless to say, this is not an ideal betting event and we have worked hard to amass nearly 50 units of profit already this season. Therefore, we will not be adding any unnecessary risk as it relates to this event.
As things currently stand, 17 drivers have earned the right to compete in Sunday’s All-Star Race which even includes AJ Allmendinger who competes full-time in the Xfinity Series. Allmendinger earned his ticket to the All-Star Race following last year’s win at Indianapolis and will be piloting the #16 car for Kaulig Racing. The rest of the drivers eligible for Sunday’s All-Star Race can be found in the official All-Star Race Entry List. However, all remaining Cup Series drivers (All-Star Race Open Entry List) will have a chance to race their way into the All-Star Race in Saturday night’s All-Star Open which is a notorious prequel to the All-Star Race which provides all non-eligible drivers a chance to earn a ticket to Sunday’s main event. The open will be a 100 lap event with the top two finishers being granted a ticket to the All-Star main event along with a 3rd driver that wins the annual fan vote. While those particular aspects to the weekend are not new, there are a couple of more major changes that are worth highlighting which will be unique to this year’s event.
2024 All-Star Race Format
Technically, the format to this year’s All-Star Race will be unchanged. Teams will have the opportunity to qualify on Saturday and will then be placed into different heat races that will officially set the starting lineup for Sunday’s main event. On Sunday, the All-Star Race will kick off shortly after 8:00PM (EST) and will feature a 200 lap main event. Mandatory cautions will be thrown at lap 100 and again at lap 150 which will set up a 50 lap sprint to the checkered flag. All laps (green/yellow) will count towards the 200 scheduled laps and NASCAR overtime rules will be in effect if needed. After the lap 100 caution, teams will have a mandatory four-tire pit stop. Afterwards, teams will have the options to pit and/or select as many tires as desired.
The true twist in this year’s race will center around the tires perhaps for the first time in the modern era. NASCAR and GoodYear will debut 2 different tire compounds this weekend which will be utilized by teams at their discretion. The two tire compounds are labeled as “prime tires” and “option tires.” The “prime tires” will be the standard tire that was used in GoodYear’s tire test at North Wilkesboro in April and similar to the compound used in last year’s All-Star Race. The “option tires” will be composed of softer rubber that will create more grip (faster lap times) but also yield more tire wear. These “option tires” will inevitably be faster but we don’t know how much faster or for how long at this point. However, this will give teams multiple options to consider at the lap 100 and lap 150 mandatory cautions in hopes to improve the overall competition!
*Note: Wet weather tires will also be on-hand this weekend if needed.*
All-Star Race Preview and Targets
Aside from the tire options which will be available in this year’s All-Star Race, everyone should also realize that the track’s racing surface will also be different for this year’s event. North Wilkesboro was repaved over the offseason which means cars will have a lot more grip as opposed to last year’s abrasive surface. Based on drivers’ interviews, it appears that the repave has been fairly successful in providing more grip but also keeping some of the track’s unique and bumpy characteristics. With that being said, I’m still not sure if this Next Gen Car appeals to repaves especially at the shorter venues. Therefore, I would expect passing to be very difficult with grip being less of a concern.
Another important caveat, for anyone looking to place wagers or construct a few fantasy lineups, is the fact that Kyle Larson will likely miss all of Saturday’s activities (practice/qualifying/heat races) as he attempts to qualify for the Indianapolis 500 which will take place next weekend. While Larson’s certainly capable of driving through the field on Sunday, he will be in a big hole when the green flag waves for the All-Star Race by not only starting in the rear but not having any insight into the handling/setup of the car based on his absence on Saturday. Personally, I would have not bet against Larson in any way based on how he dominated this race last year despite the track and format changes. However, I do believe Larson’s absence on Saturday will be difficult to overcome and opens the door for potential surprise winners.
In last year’s race, Daniel Suarez and Bubba Wallace were among the surprise stories. Suarez led many (55) of the early laps but faded in the latter stages. Meanwhile, Wallace got better as the race progressed and surprisingly finished in the runner-up position. Meanwhile drivers like Martin Truex Jr, William Byron, and Kyle Busch were among the groups of names that struggled significantly. Of course we don’t know if those struggles were driver related or if those teams elected to experiment with setup packages. The All-Star Race has often been an event where teams would experiment with setups which is another reason this race is not ideal for betting. However, we do know that Denny Hamlin, Truex, and Larson have been the best in the Cup Series at short-tracks this season courtesy of our dynamic averages (short tracks)
While there are not really any tracks that closely compare to North Wilkesboro, I would consider Martinsville and Richmond as perhaps the closest comparisons. Needless to say, statistically this should lean into the strength of Denny Hamlin who is arguably having one of the best seasons of his career. However if I were to attack this event from a betting standpoint, I would definitely try to chase better value. Personally, I like the value of guys like Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr who are among the best short-track guys in the series. I was surprised that Truex was not a bigger factor in this race last year but the #19 team has been performing very well in recent weeks and he is checking off all the handicapping indicators going into the weekend. Meanwhile, Ty Gibbs and Chase Briscoe are among the dark horses that I believe have high likelihood of outrunning their current betting odds and are perhaps worthy of prop bet/dark horse consideration. Again, I would not promote any unnecessary betting risks this weekend but don’t blame anyone for throwing out a few bucks to make this race a little more exciting. If you take that route, good luck and hopefully we witness a fun race!
Weather Update – North Wilkesboro
The weather forecast for the 2024 All-Star Race is yielding a higher probability of rain for both Saturday and Sunday. NASCAR and GoodYear will have the wet weather tires on-hand throughout the weekend and the wet weather tires can be used at any point this weekend if needed. If wet weather tires are needed in the All-Star Race on Sunday, it will perhaps erase the possibility of teams utilizing the “option tires”which are slicks with a softer compound. A wet race track would likely be dominated by teams needing to use the wet weather tires while a damp track could open a plethora of tire options. Either way if rain does interfere with racing activities this weekend, I always like to perform an impact assessment from a handicapping/betting perspective.
For those wondering, wet weathered tires have been around for several years but were mainly used at the road courses because the threading on the tires could push out water more evenly with drivers making both right and left turns. It was not until the start of the 2023 season that NASCAR made wet weather tires an option on the short-ovals. Interestingly, NASCAR ran into issues with Mother Nature in last year’s All-Star Race debut at North Wilkesboro. In last year’s event, rain struck on Saturday prior to the opening heat race. The wet weather tires were used in the opening heat race but the track dried out prior to the 2nd heat race and “slicks” were used for the remainder of the weekend. Interestingly, the wet weather tires were actually faster than the “slicks” because it had more grip on a track that was more damp than “wet” so I’m not sure if it truly changed the product of the racing. Among the drivers that raced on the wet weather tires in the opening heat, I would definitely point to Daniel Suarez and Joey Logano as the drivers that seemed to excel, though I’m not sure how much if any of that was due to the tire.
To this point, NASCAR has only raced on the wet weather tires in one official points-paying race which came at Richmond (comparable track) back in late March. In that race, the wet weather tires were used to start the Toyota Owners 400 in what can only be described as true wet conditions. In that race, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Daniel Suarez were among the drivers that excelled with the wet weather tires who are participating in Sunday’s All-Star Race. Meanwhile, I would make notable mentions to drivers like Chase Briscoe, Justin Haley, and Todd Gilliland who also thrived in the wet conditions. Personally, I really like the betting odds for both Chase Briscoe and Alex Bowman to win the All Star Open. Both drivers are currently sitting at 7-1 odds with legitimate winning upside.
